Russian Market Trends & What They Predict



Current Market Trends in Russia . . .

Ruble3Which leads, political and physical events or the markets themselves?

I favor the later and, the trick is to let the markets speak about where the future events are headed.

Let’s take a look at the basic currency of one of the main players in the Middle East drama: RUSSIA

As the chart to the left shows, the Russian Ruble has been in decline since last May with a pause for a rally during the initial Syrian air operations.

The intervention itself spurred a rise in the Ruble’s value, but, it broke it’s upwards momentum almost 3-weeks ago.

This downside trigger preceded the recent events of the last few days. We’ll often see this when we examine price charts around physical or political events. It essentially acts as a warning of events-to-come.

russiastock2Wisdom dictates that we look at more than one indicator, so, let’s include the Russian Stock Market as one additional element to our predictive equation.

A chart is shown on the left going back 10-Years.

Over this significant period of Time, we find 3 most-important tops to the Russian Stock Market.

Presently, the Russian Stock Index has AGAIN entered into this strong price resistance area.

This portends another top and subsequent decline ahead for Russian securities at the same time as the Ruble has turned downwards in trend again.

There will be political or physical events that will surface in future that will justify these two economic negative trending events (after the fact). 

It will be easy to see the tie-in after it happens. 

What we’re setting out to do here is anticipating the events before they happen. That’s a Big Difference in approach! In the meantime, one can guess with high confidence that the one-sided ‘good news’ Syrian campaign upswing that acted so positively on the Ruble in September and October, will not repeat in the immediate weeks-to-come.

In short, there will likely be further negative events and news ahead for Russia for some weeks & months ahead. Let’s see how the markets reflect the future in this case. – George