Category Archives for "market risk analysis"

India Rising

INDIA: IT’S MARKETS & ECONOMY ON THE RISE

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

bse-1INDIA is the next of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations we’ll examine.

What we’ve been looking for are signs on how the stock market and currencies for several nations.

Most importantly, we’re drawing our conclusions directly from charts that pertain to a nation’s stock market and it’s currency.

Unlike some of the recent nations we’ve analyzed, India is going it’s own way independently from the other BRIC nations.

The Indian Bombay Stock Exchange bottomed at the end of 2012 and has been rising ever since gaining over 50% in value over that time to present.

More importantly, this rise in the BSE Sensex index appears to be ONLY JUST BEGINNING.

The first chart shows the index for the last 5-years along with trigger signals and the Resistance ceiling for prices over this long period. Prices have now broken well past this former resistance level and soared upwards. When prices are contained within a range for a long period, a break-out will have considerable momentum behind it.

That’s the case here. But, it gets even better . . .

bse-2The next chart shows the BSE Sensex Index over a 10-Year period.

This is a very long time period for markets.

Note that the horizontal red bar shows how price resistance has been contained over this long 10-year period by the 20,000 price area.

Also notice that we’ve now blown by this in the upwards direction.

History and the study of price movements (as WD Gann always advocated) shows that such price breakouts often have preceded enormous market moves in price.

Looking around the World, this market seems to offer tremendous promise for growth and prosperity.

Let’s see how India’s currency is poised during this Stock Market & economic boom.

rupee-1On a monthly basis, the Indian Rupee is rising in a steady, balanced fashion.

This is an important clue because, a solid, long-term rise needs to have a solid base price region.

This is best established by a slow, steady building of value (in India’s currency the Rupee in this case).

Should this process continue we’ll have the excellent pairing of a strong stock market backed by a strong currency.

This is a short-term rise from, what has been, a constant decline in the Rupee lasting 2- years now.

All downtrends, eventually turn into uptrends again.

Has the Indian Rupee made this turn?

Let’s look back a little bit further into the past to put this currency (and India’s economy) into better perspective.

rupee-2Now, let’s observe the last chart in our series now to see where we’re coming from up to the present.

The long-term momentum has been Down these last 2-years, but, the momentum has been slowing by shifting gradually upwards in price.

We’re getting quite close to a second break-out to the upside which would be a very early indicator of a long-term build-up for the Rupee.

What you’ve seen here and in the markets covered this week is how each nation’s markets can be accurately assessed and acted on early.

Understanding & finding these shifts without the special insights needed to do so can be almost impossibly difficult.

That is, unless one has a method of market analysis that can uncover these critical shifts in momentum even as they’re happening. Those critical early decision points are what’s illustrated on these charts with the red and green circles. See lower on the page to learn more about the Excalibur Method used on these charts. – George

NOTE that all charts show hypothetical decision points as part of this website’s educational content. All trading is risky. Please read the Disclaimers on this site.

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Brazilian-Russian Stock Market Linkage Trends

THE BRAZILIAN – RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET LINKAGE

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

Ibovespa

Charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Click on chart to enlarge for clarity

Brazil, another one of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is now up for examination.

We’re looking only at the Brazilian Stock Market (IBovespa) at this time.

The stock market bottom for Brazilian Stocks is amazing in it’s exact synchronization with Russia’s Stock Market as previously examined in our article and charts yesterday.

But, Brazil didn’t have ‘sanctions’ leveled against it, yet it also, like the Russian Stock Market declined first, made the same date bottom and has been rising since that bottom in lock-step with Russia.

Brazilian stocks have, on average, made gains of 20% since their Lows while Russia’s stock market has gained 10% in the same time period.

The similarity of two markets so widely separated by their politics and world attentions tracking the same financial paths gives pause for reflection.

This is a good example of politics being used as a smokescreen for grander financial plans by powerful interests.

While the ‘news’ misdirects like a good magician, the profitable markets-of-opportunity are scooped up for quick profits before the rest of the world knows what happened.

realTo get a broader view, I’ve included a currency chart for the Brazilian Real.

The REAL, like the Russian Ruble, has also been declining in value.

Presently, it’s showing support in the 2.15-2.20 area.

Should prices rise to hit the green circle price area, then, a new uptrend will likely engage and push the REAL upwards.

If prices drop to the lower red circle area, then support has failed and a renewed downward movement is highly likely which could drive the REAL to declines of .20-.25.

The daily and intradaily movements of currencies and stocks easily mask the true intentions of the main players from the general public. That’s exactly what they’re designed to do; leave average investors confused and hesitant.

That is, unless one has a method of market analysis that can uncover such grand strategies as they’re being implemented. Those critical early decision points are what’s illustrated on these charts with the red and green circles. See lower on the page to learn more about the Excalibur Method used on these charts. – George

NOTE that all charts show hypothetical decision points as part of this website’s educational content. All trading is risky. Please read the Disclaimers on this site.

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Russian Ruble & Economic Trends

THE RUBLE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTH

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

Ruble

Charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Click on charts to enlarge for clarity

As the chart to the left shows, the Ruble has been declining since 2011 and hit 5-year lows in March of this year.

Now, 5-years is a long period of time and it essentially rolls us back to 2009 levels of valuation for the Ruble.

Low valuation levels like these are good places for a market to recover strength and the Ruble is doing that right now.

Don’t misunderstand me though, there’s still solid momentum in the downward direction for the Ruble.

It takes time and lots of buying to compensate for all the selling pressure that’s been at play over these last 3-years.

The second chart shows that there’s been significant BUYING taking place which has moved the Ruble now in the upwards direction since March 2014.

It’s interesting to note that this new rising trend started in the middle of the Crimean Crisis.

Obviously, there are some who are investing heavily by buying Russian products. If the media hype during the crisis were correct (it wasn’t), then, you’d think people would be selling their rubles and buying US Dollars. The opposite is shown on the chart.

It’s the US DOLLAR that has declined as a result of it’s admitted involvement in both the Ukraine and Crimea politically.

ruble2

*Note that all charts indicate hypothetical positions using The Excalibur Method.

Currencies can reflect on immediate events temporarily as in this case, but, as I’ve advocated on this website and WD Gann did as well, it’s very, very important to know the long-term trends of the markets we’re examining.

The chart on the left shows us the shorter-term turns.

The red circles are the Excalibur Method trigger points within the downtrend of the Ruble where additional or initial positions could be placed with lower-than-normal risks of reversal.

The green circle at the bottom is where a short-term Buy trigger was indicated where a similar lower-than-normal risk could be applied.

My summary is that, despite the negative news, the smart money immediately took advantage of the political crisis to go against US proposed sanctions and started to heavily BUY the Ruble and go long the Russian Economy.

Need more proof?

Check out the behavior of the Russian Stock Market during this same crisis period.

russianstocksThe chart to the left shows that both the Ruble and the Russian Stock Market bottomed at the same time, but, have since also both risen in the aftermath. Obviously big money moved into this market and has bought when things looked bleakest.

Recent European headlines show that Germany has opted out of the ‘sanctions’ approach as well as other European countries as well as Canada.

All this political posturing seems to have boosted the Russian Economy, not hurt it. Or, at least it provided opportunities to BUY at extreme discounts for those in the know.

So much for politics as an economic indicator. – George

 

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Chinese Yuan: Declining Trend

 THE CHINESE YUAN CONTINUES IT’S DECLINE

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

chineseYuan

Charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Click on chart to enlarge for clarity

Continuing in our ‘Appraisal Reports’ for major Currencies of late, we come next to the Chinese Yuan.

The current price chart of the CNY/USD for a multi-year period is shown to the left. This particular chart was prepared some days ago.

Although most media have been reporting the recent upswing in the Yuan, the underlying momentum for this market is still downwards in direction.

We’ll take a more recent snapshot of this market with the next chart down.

This second chart shows that the downward drift of prices has continued even further.

To further confirm the down trend of the Chinese Yuan as indicated by the CNY/USD chart, we should expect prices to decline over time. Let’s see if this is so . . .

chineseyuan2

This is the current trend for this currency which, in turn, strengthens the Chinese economic position by decreasing the costs of their exports.

As the Economy of a nation is reflected in it’s currency, we can draw some conclusion from the emphasis that nation places on it’s money.

As the US DOLLAR is rising, causing exports to be more expensive from the USA, China is purposefully decreasing the value of it’s controlled currency in order to maintain it’s World exporting edge and to support it’s own industries.

This places China in the stronger position of the two economically relative to supporting it’s own industrial base. – George

 

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THE EXCALIBUR TRADING METHOD

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CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE 

This is the method that I developed in order to find the true ‘intentions’ of the institutional traders in every market.

This approach is unique and, is not a conventional trend tool. The theory behind this exceptional analytical tool was derived from my many decades of research into W.D. Gann’s methods and writings as well as those of the ‘mercantile principles’ from the business side of the markets.

As the years rolled by, rediscoveries of lost principles of the markets were accumulated into what is now called the ‘Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course’.

‘The Excalibur Method’ is now part of the Master Course but, still may be purchased separately for a little while longer. You can read testimonials here.

The first half of the manual introduces a new paradigm and perspective for identifying what I call the ‘intentions’ or ‘objectives’ of the big market interests who clearly control the market trends. The Excalibur Method’s purpose is to allow one to place themselves in alignment with the plans of those who make the markets by using a mathematical tool to extract and interpret those plans. This information is a restricted release product. E-mail me HERE for price & availability

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The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box above.

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Master Course Availability

Rarity | Limited Access | Unique & Re-Discovered Market Structure Discoveries

The Master Course emerged from over four-decades of research, application and trading in both the Stock, Commodity and Forex Markets. I’ve carefully released it’s secrets to only a few handful of clients who desired to better understand the real workings of the market. These courses tell us how to take advantage of the market’s subtle whispers about it’s plans for the future. It’s about translating the price and time clues and being early to take action on what we discover.

I will release this collection to only a few more this year. It may not be publicly offered again after these remaining few.

This will only be the end of the instructional portion of a project that will be offered to international investors and traders soon. Be sure to sign up as a member. Only members will be contacted privately for the next phase of this international project. – George

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CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE FOR CLARITY

Excellent portfolio & fund management doesn’t necessarily require frequent trading to beat all competitors, but, instead, requires accurate and sound positioning of long-term holdings in strong trending markets.

The ability to determine just where those long-running trends are manifesting and how to follow them safely is what The Excalibur Method offers to today’s discerning investor and manager.

Today’s popular investment approaches are too fast-changing to adopt for the best fiduciary management of a portfolio.

One needs to have a tool to assist them in providing the very best results for clients and to display one’s world-class management potential. Consider the potential for yourself and your management needs.

Contact me for cost & availability by CLICKING HERE. Thank you. – George

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Using Price Charts to Remove the Fear of Trading

HOW TO REMOVE FEAR BY USING CHARTS

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

Eur1

CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, most of the public has been conditioned by the media to expect traumatic upheavals in government and the economy at any moment.

This is either a gross mis-interpretation of economic conditions or an outright lie broadcast to further one’s opposite investment commitments.

It’s the old sleight-of-hand maneuver using the media instead of a pea under a walnut shell .

Let’s see how we can use charts to remove some of this unnecessary fear from our trading and investment decisions.

A nation’s currency is an excellent indicator of it’s underlying condition, but, short-term daily charts will seldom provide the important context we’ll need to make an accurate evaluation.

We’ll start with a major Forex currency pair; the Euro-US Dollar.

The top chart shows the Eur/Usd over the last year. Outside of perceiving the upwards nature of the trend, what do we really know? Not much really at all.

Eur2

CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

The fundamental core of a successful enterprise is to BUY at a discount or wholesale and SELL at premiums or mark-ups.

One needs to remember that the currency market is, in the end, still just a ‘market’ and the same principle can be found at work in it if one takes the time to look.

If we examine the activity of the last 5-Years, we find a market that has provided 10% and 20% discounts from the Highs and provided even more upside profit potential on the mark-ups from bottoms.

Lest, one forgets, these are multiple 20% profits from a currency during a time when the Banks are only paying out 1% to depositors of this very same currency into their vaults!

The chart above shows a pattern of buying and selling on an institutional level that has maintained it’s integrity for the last 5-years.

This is the basis for an excellent investment when using the correct tools to interpret the ongoing price movements into the future (see ‘The Excalibur Method‘ for one of the easiest and most accurate tools to use – George)

Eur3

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Now, here’s how to use a chart like this to remove news-generated fear from your investment decisions . . .

First note the extreme mark-ups (the Highs) and extreme discounts (the Lows). These are the points of maximum danger to a currency and the government that controls it. The threat of Inflation at the one extreme and Deflation at the other.

Markets at these extreme points need to be monitored closely to determine if there will be an important shift in the economy.

However, most of the time, these become only BUY and SELL opportunities for institutions (like banks) as discussed above.

Note the red circle on the third chart. This is where price action is now. You’ll need to note that this price level is NOT near the extremes mentioned above.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that there’s any financial crisis at hand that will affect the base currency.

In fact, at the momentum rate we’re presently in for this market, it’s unlikely that we’ll reach the upper mark-up limits before 2015.

Determining and knowing that fact, the influence of current news becomes diminished and unimportant to the larger picture of events under way.

Charts like these therefore, can provide provide you with the Knowledge that conquers fear, removes panic, prevents emotional decisions and so, increase one’s likelihood of Investment Success.- GR HARRISON

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JOIN THE ‘WD GANN LOST SECRETS TRADING GROUP’

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The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box below.

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Newcomers are always welcome to read the many articles that are on this website.

You can gain access by going to the lower part of this page and clicking on the many links there.

If you’re an active trader, you’ll probably be interested in also visiting my other website called www.money-tigers.com where you’ll find that I predicted these lower Gold prices some time ago using other techniques (like the Excalibur Method). Note that there are over 4-years of archived posts there with many, many spot-on predictions.

I’d like to point out that this is a tribute to technique rather than ego and that the techniques applied were developed from my many decades of research into Gann materials and personal research derived or inspired by Mr. Gann’s work. – George