By G. R. Harrison (2014)
What we’ve been looking for are signs on how the stock market and currencies for several nations.
Most importantly, we’re drawing our conclusions directly from charts that pertain to a nation’s stock market and it’s currency.
Unlike some of the recent nations we’ve analyzed, India is going it’s own way independently from the other BRIC nations.
The Indian Bombay Stock Exchange bottomed at the end of 2012 and has been rising ever since gaining over 50% in value over that time to present.
More importantly, this rise in the BSE Sensex index appears to be ONLY JUST BEGINNING.
The first chart shows the index for the last 5-years along with trigger signals and the Resistance ceiling for prices over this long period. Prices have now broken well past this former resistance level and soared upwards. When prices are contained within a range for a long period, a break-out will have considerable momentum behind it.
That’s the case here. But, it gets even better . . .
This is a very long time period for markets.
Note that the horizontal red bar shows how price resistance has been contained over this long 10-year period by the 20,000 price area.
Also notice that we’ve now blown by this in the upwards direction.
History and the study of price movements (as WD Gann always advocated) shows that such price breakouts often have preceded enormous market moves in price.
Looking around the World, this market seems to offer tremendous promise for growth and prosperity.
Let’s see how India’s currency is poised during this Stock Market & economic boom.
This is an important clue because, a solid, long-term rise needs to have a solid base price region.
This is best established by a slow, steady building of value (in India’s currency the Rupee in this case).
Should this process continue we’ll have the excellent pairing of a strong stock market backed by a strong currency.
This is a short-term rise from, what has been, a constant decline in the Rupee lasting 2- years now.
All downtrends, eventually turn into uptrends again.
Has the Indian Rupee made this turn?
Let’s look back a little bit further into the past to put this currency (and India’s economy) into better perspective.
The long-term momentum has been Down these last 2-years, but, the momentum has been slowing by shifting gradually upwards in price.
We’re getting quite close to a second break-out to the upside which would be a very early indicator of a long-term build-up for the Rupee.
What you’ve seen here and in the markets covered this week is how each nation’s markets can be accurately assessed and acted on early.
Understanding & finding these shifts without the special insights needed to do so can be almost impossibly difficult.
That is, unless one has a method of market analysis that can uncover these critical shifts in momentum even as they’re happening. Those critical early decision points are what’s illustrated on these charts with the red and green circles. See lower on the page to learn more about the Excalibur Method used on these charts. – George
NOTE that all charts show hypothetical decision points as part of this website’s educational content. All trading is risky. Please read the Disclaimers on this site.
By G. R. Harrison (2014)
As the chart to the left shows, the Ruble has been declining since 2011 and hit 5-year lows in March of this year.
Now, 5-years is a long period of time and it essentially rolls us back to 2009 levels of valuation for the Ruble.
Low valuation levels like these are good places for a market to recover strength and the Ruble is doing that right now.
Don’t misunderstand me though, there’s still solid momentum in the downward direction for the Ruble.
It takes time and lots of buying to compensate for all the selling pressure that’s been at play over these last 3-years.
The second chart shows that there’s been significant BUYING taking place which has moved the Ruble now in the upwards direction since March 2014.
It’s interesting to note that this new rising trend started in the middle of the Crimean Crisis.
Obviously, there are some who are investing heavily by buying Russian products. If the media hype during the crisis were correct (it wasn’t), then, you’d think people would be selling their rubles and buying US Dollars. The opposite is shown on the chart.
It’s the US DOLLAR that has declined as a result of it’s admitted involvement in both the Ukraine and Crimea politically.
Currencies can reflect on immediate events temporarily as in this case, but, as I’ve advocated on this website and WD Gann did as well, it’s very, very important to know the long-term trends of the markets we’re examining.
The chart on the left shows us the shorter-term turns.
The red circles are the Excalibur Method trigger points within the downtrend of the Ruble where additional or initial positions could be placed with lower-than-normal risks of reversal.
The green circle at the bottom is where a short-term Buy trigger was indicated where a similar lower-than-normal risk could be applied.
My summary is that, despite the negative news, the smart money immediately took advantage of the political crisis to go against US proposed sanctions and started to heavily BUY the Ruble and go long the Russian Economy.
Need more proof?
Check out the behavior of the Russian Stock Market during this same crisis period.
The chart to the left shows that both the Ruble and the Russian Stock Market bottomed at the same time, but, have since also both risen in the aftermath. Obviously big money moved into this market and has bought when things looked bleakest.
Recent European headlines show that Germany has opted out of the ‘sanctions’ approach as well as other European countries as well as Canada.
All this political posturing seems to have boosted the Russian Economy, not hurt it. Or, at least it provided opportunities to BUY at extreme discounts for those in the know.
So much for politics as an economic indicator. – George
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Report As Of March 21st, 2014
Asset Protection: The Flight Towards Safety.
Proper market analysis can soothe the nerves and dial down the anxiety of today’s tense headlines. When there’s war jitters, safety is a fundamental Key for the greater portion of one’s portfolio. Strong Markets are those that are positively gaining in value and running true to their inherent momentum ROI angles as depicted by WD GANN & GR HARRISON in their writings.
Speculation: How To Take Advantage Of Weaker Markets.
Once the safety requirements of the stronger markets are met, then, one can speculate and seek profitability by SELLING the weaker markets. Those with the greatest potential for downwards price movements. Weak markets are those that are declining in value according to their own negative momentum. These offer spectacular profit opportunities within short time periods and lie where average traders fear to tread: Where the Market is actually going!
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