The True State of the US Stock Market
The US Stock Market: Far from the hysterical screams of the perpetual Market Bears (who spend each day awaiting the Final Crash that will end all civilization), we find those rational few who can distinguish 'the forest from the trees'; those who can discern what's 'Real' from what's fantasy and market manipulation.
When it comes to the US Stock Market (as seen in the S&P 500 Stock Index shown in the chart below), one needs to discount almost everything being written or presented in television market media. The Truth about this huge BULL Market is that it has finally taken a long-overdue pause from it's relentless climb in order to consolidate and prepare to continue it's bullish behavior!
In point of fact, the recent pull-back which has everyone in a panic and confused state, hasn't even matched the minor pullback in prices that we saw last March. This same price pullback would have brought prices down to the price level shown by the red horizontal line on the above chart.
Until this first threshold is reached on the downside, then, any talk of a major market downturn is premature and, just plain misinformed.
The green uptrend angles still indicate the overall direction of the market once price has consolidated and re-grouped. This could take a few more weeks to complete, but, overall, one should expect that which is historically sound and not an out-lying event to occur (when hearing hoofbeats, expect horses not zebras).
Far too many people are expecting a big crash and are trading short than should be expected to be correct. The Markets just don't work that way.
The odds on the mass of traders being correct at such a critical market turn of the Greatest Bulll Market of all Time are astronomically AGAINST, and not for this event to occur.The real downswing, when it occurs, will catch almost everyone by surprise as most can be expected to be manically optimistic to the upside potentialat at the exact moment that the Market Breaks for real. The General Public will most certainly get this WRONG. Someday will come, assuredly, however, real market capitulation isn't indicated at this time though. - George