Crude Oil Price Objectives

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Where is Crude Oil Heading?

Clearly, the lion’s share of the profit from this down move has been given out already. While prices have been dropping over $10/barrel each month.

Now that we’re down into the $55 dollar range, this rate of decrease can only have less than 4-months remaining before we reached the extreme lows of $10/ barrel reached at the lows of the last crude oil cycle.

And, furthermore, if we project outwards just one more month of $10 declines we’d reach the price of zero; free oil. An event that can be written off as impossible with high reliability.

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What does this tell us then?

Well, markets at their extremes seldom move linearly so, the the 4-month timeline is unlikely, but, interestingly, that time period would take us past the high demand Winter Season and into Spring with lower-demands nearer their expected time for low prices.

The recent rapid rate of decline is likely to slow within this $50 region and, even rebound some from these lows to gather strength for the next down leg. This will extend out the 4-month rate of decline scenario and allow for a more gradual decline taking more time to reach ultimate lows. – George

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  • December 23, 2014