Crude Oil Price Objectives


Where is Crude Oil Heading?

Clearly, the lion’s share of the profit from this down move has been given out already. While prices have been dropping over $10/barrel each month.

Now that we’re down into the $55 dollar range, this rate of decrease can only have less than 4-months remaining before we reached the extreme lows of $10/ barrel reached at the lows of the last crude oil cycle.

And, furthermore, if we project outwards just one more month of $10 declines we’d reach the price of zero; free oil. An event that can be written off as impossible with high reliability.


What does this tell us then?

Well, markets at their extremes seldom move linearly so, the the 4-month timeline is unlikely, but, interestingly, that time period would take us past the high demand Winter Season and into Spring with lower-demands nearer their expected time for low prices.

The recent rapid rate of decline is likely to slow within this $50 region and, even rebound some from these lows to gather strength for the next down leg. This will extend out the 4-month rate of decline scenario and allow for a more gradual decline taking more time to reach ultimate lows. – George

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  • December 23, 2014