The last GOLD post was our preliminary look at Gold at the beginning of 2015. We started at the intraday level, examining the current state of balance at that level. What we found was that the intra-day, short-term outlook was weak and, two short Excalibur Method trigger signals were generated.
The last was issued as a SELL point when posted and, indeed prices dropped rapidly after posting by another $15/oz. or $1500/contract within 2-hours time! Prices rapidly bounced back upwards again (as shown on the chart) taking out the hypothetical hourly Excalibur short position and was a good place to reverse to an hourly Long position. which has continued to hold up to the time of this post write-up. This upwards bias for price movement can be viewed on the chart following which shows bands representing selling pressure (the lower band) and buying pressure (the upper band).
. It must be kept in mind at all times that even this little upswing needs to be placed in proper perspective. This price movement is nowhere near enough to counter the downtrend in Gold going back to 2011.
That trend is strong and has enormous momentum still. However, major trends always begin as minor trends first, so, we’ll keep an eye on the market while noting the ‘bigger picture’ trend. The chart below is a closer time perspective going back a year.
We continue to find a strong downtrend in progress and one that hasn’t been interrupted to this point. A price move above (and, staying above) $1260 is needed to overcome the downside selling pressure in this market. – George