Russian Ruble & Economic Trends
THE RUBLE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTH
By G. R. Harrison (2014)
As the chart to the left shows, the Ruble has been declining since 2011 and hit 5-year lows in March of this year.
Now, 5-years is a long period of time and it essentially rolls us back to 2009 levels of valuation for the Ruble.
Low valuation levels like these are good places for a market to recover strength and the Ruble is doing that right now.
Don’t misunderstand me though, there’s still solid momentum in the downward direction for the Ruble.
It takes time and lots of buying to compensate for all the selling pressure that’s been at play over these last 3-years.
The second chart shows that there’s been significant BUYING taking place which has moved the Ruble now in the upwards direction since March 2014.
It’s interesting to note that this new rising trend started in the middle of the Crimean Crisis.
Obviously, there are some who are investing heavily by buying Russian products. If the media hype during the crisis were correct (it wasn’t), then, you’d think people would be selling their rubles and buying US Dollars. The opposite is shown on the chart.
It’s the US DOLLAR that has declined as a result of it’s admitted involvement in both the Ukraine and Crimea politically.
Currencies can reflect on immediate events temporarily as in this case, but, as I’ve advocated on this website and WD Gann did as well, it’s very, very important to know the long-term trends of the markets we’re examining.
The chart on the left shows us the shorter-term turns.
The red circles are the Excalibur Method trigger points within the downtrend of the Ruble where additional or initial positions could be placed with lower-than-normal risks of reversal.
The green circle at the bottom is where a short-term Buy trigger was indicated where a similar lower-than-normal risk could be applied.
My summary is that, despite the negative news, the smart money immediately took advantage of the political crisis to go against US proposed sanctions and started to heavily BUY the Ruble and go long the Russian Economy.
Need more proof?
Check out the behavior of the Russian Stock Market during this same crisis period.
The chart to the left shows that both the Ruble and the Russian Stock Market bottomed at the same time, but, have since also both risen in the aftermath. Obviously big money moved into this market and has bought when things looked bleakest.
Recent European headlines show that Germany has opted out of the ‘sanctions’ approach as well as other European countries as well as Canada.
All this political posturing seems to have boosted the Russian Economy, not hurt it. Or, at least it provided opportunities to BUY at extreme discounts for those in the know.
So much for politics as an economic indicator. – George