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Monthly Archives: November 2015

Crude Oil Prices: The Next Round

 

CRUDE OIL PRICES:

THE NEXT ROUND OF PRICE DECREASES TO WATCH FOR . . .

crude2

 CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Back on our October 27th post, we predicted a drop ahead for Crude Oil Prices.

Prices at that time were $46.86.

Today they reached down to $40.73.

On the short-side, this was a prediction worth a potential profit of $6,000 per futures contract in just a little over 2-weeks time!

Options would have yielded an even greater ROI profit for a smaller investment.

All this further confirming an observable and repeatable truth about trading and the markets: mainly, that a few well-placed trades at strategic price points are enough to provide an excellent income with much less stress than intra-day trading.

Of course the same techniques will work at the short-time frames as well, but, because of the shortened time periods, many more trades and greater volatility within those short time periods make trading a much more intense process. There are several students of the Master Course materials as well as the Excalibur and Stairway Trading Methods that are successful at intra-day trading as this is their comfort zone.

It could be an age thing on my part.

Youth does bring with it daring, impatience and the necessary willingness to take a risk. Youth has lots of time ahead of it and mistakes can be remedied and new attempts made based on the experiences gained.

As one gets older however, there’s a greater willingness to be patient in exchange for lessened risk and greater opportunity for investment success over a longer time period. In short, one becomes willing to take fewer trades stretched over weeks or months in exchange for a much higher potential to win on an investment.

Both approaches can work but, the temperaments behind them are radically different. Know which type of trader or investor you are and work with Time accordingly. – George

The Mythical Fear of Hyper-Inflation

 

A Quarterly Report:

A Long-Term Perspective On Inflation

(Free ‘Metals’ Edition)

 

The Mythical Fear of Hyper-Inflation

You can hear the buzzword ‘inflation’ and, the even more fear-inspiring word ‘Hyper-Inflation’ every week without even having to strain your hearing. We’ve seen them used almost endlessly in advertisements and in the media.

Their purpose seems to be both:

  1. Manipulative (to persuade investors and traders into the opposite trading position of the institutional traders) or
  2. Promotional (selling gold, silver or ‘inflation-fighting investments’ to the uninformed.

But, where’s the real evidence of danger from inflation or hyper-inflation?

Does this danger even exist today? The short answer is NO, and the proof is provided by LONG-TERM price history as depicted in price charts.

The trick here is to note that promoters of investments or commodity ‘opportunities’ are forced to only use optimized or short-term price charts to make their case.

They have to do this because THERE IS NO CASE FOR INFLATION WHATSOEVER when the reality of historical price movement is presented in it’s entirety.

As the precious metals (GOLD, SILVER & PLATINUM) are one of the most familiar markets being promoted as a protection from hyper-inflation, let’s take an honest long-term view of their price history and the industrial metal COPPER in the following charts.

metals

                                     The Metals have been in a Deflation mode since 2011. – George

Inflation means higher prices in a local currency. Hyper-Inflation means exponentially rising prices in that same local currency.

What we see on these charts is the complete opposite of those two scenarios. In fact, prices have been declining in all these metal markets since 2011!

Instead of being in an inflationary mode, the metals are in a strong declining price environment.

This is called DEFLATION, where prices continue to decline over time (in terms of the US Dollar in this case).

What makes this situation a Global one affecting many nations is that the World Reserve Currency in which these metals have been decreasing in price is also the STRONGEST currency in the Western World; the US DOLLAR! Observe the following chart to confirm this for yourself . . .

usd

                     The US DOLLAR has been increasing in value since 2011, not Gold! – George

The combination of a strengthening Reserve Currency AND decreasing prices for Metals priced in that currency is creating Global Deflation and competition for lower prices everywhere. – George

Watch the Eur/usd! . . .

 

Watch The EUR/USD; Something’s Brewing!

eurusd

Click Chart to Enlarge for Clarity

As with GOLD yesterday, there are now indications that the EUR/USD is about to drop again.

Price is now in a volatile trigger or pivot area and the trend strength built up over the past several months has been eroded away.

A slight pull to the downside in price will likely cause the avalanche to start. With so much upside momentum dissipated, the previous major downtrend can reassert itself bringing prices downwards and taking out the lows of last March. – George

GOLD Triggered Downtrend Ahead?

 

We’re Looking at a GOLD Triggered Downtrend Ahead . . .

gold

Click Chart to Enlarge for Clarity

GOLD has recently bounced back from it’s downtrend resistance line and has also triggered a signal indicating even more weakness in price.

The chart tells much of the story . . .

The red-circled price area indicates a critical pivotal price area for GOLD.

Breaking below this price region further will likely lead to taking out the lows of last August and, $1100 will be the first test support area followed by $1055 should prices break through this support.

The price trend for GOLD still remains bearish and will continue to be unless prices can surge and break above $1175 this week. – George