DISCLAIMER: All charts are for educational purposes only and not advisories or recommendations for trades.
This amazement on their part, unfortunately, reveals a real lack of historical price study and a missing contemplation about what is really happening in the World today relative to the ‘precious’ metals.
What is the “BIG” Picture relative to the precious metals anyways?
The standard theories have failed for decades yet, millions still cling to them for lack of a better model.
I’d like to humbly submit the following as a ‘missing’ perspective that should be given some thought relative to Gold and Silver.
This different approach stems from decades of following the serpentine trail of WD Gann which certainly taught me that the ‘obvious’ is often obscured by the popular mindset and ‘leaders’ of the industry they purport to be expert in.
What do I mean by that statement? Just this: while promoters were extolling the virtues of owning Gold and Silver for decades, it had gone (conveniently?) unnoticed that more and more individuals now held some Gold or Silver of their own.
All this while the Chinese and Indian populations were massively purchasing more and more every day.
In short, in the very process of so many people buying and holding Gold & Silver, these metals have become more common and less ‘precious’ than ever before.
The gold promoters for years have pressed the scarcity of gold and silver as their main reason for expecting higher and higher prices.
Even as prices peaked in 2011 they refused to believe that Gold or Silver were still, in the end, just commodities and would decline just like the other commodities which also peaked around that same time period.
But, even beyond this fundamental, historical fact, the truth was that more gold & silver were produced and delivered to meet demands of the public even as prices fell.
The simple fact is that there’s now more gold and silver in the hands of the public than has been true since 1963 (when silver coinage was in circulation in silver’s case) or 1931 (when gold coins were in circulation in gold’s case)! Just on the basis of population growth since these past years, this would be true.
And, in those days Gold was far cheaper ($34 an ounce) and Silver was a dollar an ounce.
Yes, we have fiat inflation today and those prices don’t seem even possible, but, then, when Silver was around $50 an ounce just a few years ago, who’d expect the $17 an ounce range we’re in today? Or the $700 drop in Gold prices from their highs?
Even trillions of dollars of inflation with the QE programs failed to prevent Silver and Gold’s decline; such must be the increased quantities of both to account for this.
If one viewed gold and silver like a cell phone that didn’t add improvements every year, but, which stayed the same year after year while millions more were sold each year, you’d know instantly that the resultant retail price value trend of that cell phone would go down, down and down as more people owned one.
Gold and silver add no improvements to their value, ever and millions more units are brought into circulation every year and more and more people purchase those units.
Why should prices stay up?
As more come to possess it, logic dictates it would have to continue to lose it’s value until it reached a point of equilibrium with demand and supply.
Gold or Silver are not rare and are valued by the masses because they are obtainable (unlike rare earths, which truly ARE rare). So, don’t be hypnotized by the press and learn to think for yourselves.
That’s our main goal here; to remove myths and pick the trading trends for markets up or down.
One should have no fixed viewpoint about gold or silver or their price direction or the belief systems around them.
It’s not necessary or helpful to hold too tight to an outlook for markets unless you can back up the opinions with sufficient historical precedent to solidify one’s outlook.
One can find profit opportunity in falling as well as rising markets. In fact, money accumulates faster in downward moving markets as they tend to move much faster.
My goal here is to teach those who would not be swayed by opinion in how to determine what the true market conditions are.
The purpose behind the Excalibur Method and the other modules within the Harrson-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course are to free one’s mind from unsupported opinions and to let the markets speak clearly in their own language.
The markets will reveal their intentions to those who are trained in how to listen.
The underlying Truth about markets is all that matters in the end as only that truth will guild one to success by following the market’s lead and not fighting it. – George