We’re Visiting a 20-Year Historic Low Zone for Commodity Prices

The Combination of Both ​20-Year Lows and an Expected 10-Year Commodity Cycle Bears Watching.

​"There's nothing new under the Sun". ​So wrote Solomon and we see this Truth repeated over and over again in the Commodity Markets.

​We've been in a price decline for many years now and, this is normal for the larger commodity cycles; long periods of declining prices punctuated by sharp, up spikes and 'blow-off' tops during commodity booms.

But, even declines must eventually come to an end.
and, when that happens, one must be prepared and testing the Market's price nature constantly in order to catch the major turn in trend early in it's development. Prices always move to test the extremes. Extreme tops that are 'too high to Sell' followed by lows that seem 'too low to Buy'.

We, as traders, must learn how to control our emotions so as not to fall into either category both over the Long-term and even down to the intra-day time frame.

Events which occur outside of the Markets also bear watching, but, only as a potential confirmation tool.

​For example, should the pandemic continue to grow commodity prices could start upwards in response to panic shortages, etc.. As this timing is closely following the expected commodity cycle turn ahead, this would be a call to closely watch prices for the signals that the downtrend in prices is finally over and a new bull market in commodities has begun.

​You'll note in the above chart ​that commodities have been in a largely sideways price zone for over 5-Years now. The red downwards angle is important and should be watched for the crossing of price vs. time. This will be an indicator for an upside breakout and a new bull market for commodities.

W. D. Gann wrote that the most money was made at the ends of major trends (both to the upside after long bear market declines and to the downside after long bull market advances).

It's more than a suggestion that you'll need some special methods to detect just when those shifts in Major and Minor Trends are taking place.

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  • February 4, 2020