Australian Dollar Appraisal
THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR APPRAISAL & THE WISDOM OF THE CHARTS
By G. R. Harrison (2014)
Continuing in our ‘Appraisal Reports’ for major Currencies of late, we come next to the Australian Dollar.
The current price chart of the AUS/USD for a one-year period is shown to the left with our present price level indicated by the red circle on the right side of the chart.
As mentioned before in previous articles, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to determine much with a chart of this time-frame.
We may infer an up-trending pattern, but, is the Australian Dollar (and, therefore the economy of Australia) in any danger at present?
A nation’s currency is an excellent indicator of it’s underlying condition, but, short-term daily charts will seldom provide the important context we’ll need to make an accurate evaluation.
To discover the true status of the AUD/USD, we need to dig deeper to find the ‘mercantile perspective‘ of the banks and financial institutions that control the prices.
What we’ll observe with the Australian Dollar is that it has a bit more volatility than the Euro we examined yesterday. What this means for the institutional traders is greater profitability potential during the same time period that other currencies like the Euro offer less. To take advantage of this volatility, they target specific price areas for the Australian Dollar.
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One needs to remember that this currency market is, in the end, still just a ‘market’ and the ‘mercantile’ principles of BUYING
at greatly Discounted prices and Selling at highly Marked-up prices can be found at work in the Australian Dollar (if one takes the time to look).
If we examine the activity of the last 5-Years, we find that the Australian Dollar market provided +20% and +30% Mark-ups from the Lows and provided additional -10% and -20% downside profit potentials on the Discounts from the tops.
Lest, one forgets, these are multiple 10, 20 and 30% profits from a currency during a time when the Banks were only offering low percentage interest payments to depositors of this very same currency into their vaults!
The chart above shows a pattern of buying and selling on an institutional level that has maintained it’s integrity for the last 5-years.
This is the basis for an excellent investment when using the correct tools to interpret the ongoing price movements into the future (see ‘The Excalibur Method‘ for one of the easiest and most accurate tools to use – George)
The profit potentials on the upswing are plainly indicated on the chart.
Now, let’s look at the present environment by viewing the realities of the ‘Discount’ side of the AUS/USD.
The bottom of the red area on the price chart to the left shows the first -10% ‘Discount’ purchase area for institutions.
You’ll note upon closer examination that prices did, indeed, reverse upwards again after visiting the 10-12% discounted area for the Australian Dollar.
Eventually, an even greater Discount of 20% was reached (shown by the red horizontal line) where more ‘inventory’ of Aussie Dollars could be accumulated.
You’ll note again, that prices found magical support at this -20% price point.
Present prices can be seen within the red circle.
Now, here’s how to use a chart like this to remove news-generated fear from your investment decisions . . .
First note the extreme mark-ups (the Highs) and extreme discounts (the Lows). These are the points of maximum danger to a currency and the government that controls it.
These points contain either the threat of Inflation at the one extreme or Deflation at the other.
However, most of the time, these become only BUY and SELL opportunities for institutions (like banks) as discussed above.
Note the red circle on the last chart. This is where price action is now. You’ll need to note that this price level is NOT near the extremes mentioned above.
Therefore, it’s extremely unlikely that there’s any financial crisis at hand that will affect the Australian Dollar.
Until prices revisit either the .8900 or 1.1oo level again, there’s no reason to be fearful about the Australian Economy.
And, when prices draw close to the extremes again, they can be monitored for their true intentions using a tool like the Excalibur Method so that there will be no surprises and, instead an early warning should basic conditions shift for the worst.
By determining and knowing the real condition of a currency, we weaken the influence of the media on our trading and investing decisions.
Charts like these therefore, can provide provide you with the Knowledge that conquers fear, removes panic, prevents emotional decisions and so, increase one’s likelihood of Investment Success.- GR HARRISON
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THE EXCALIBUR TRADING METHOD
This is the method that I developed in order to find the true ‘intentions’ of the institutional traders in every market.
This approach is unique and, is not a conventional trend tool. The theory behind this exceptional analytical tool was derived from my many decades of research into W.D. Gann’s methods and writings as well as those of the ‘mercantile principles’ from the business side of the markets.
As the years rolled by, rediscoveries of lost principles of the markets were accumulated into what is now called the ‘Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course’.
‘The Excalibur Method’ is now part of the Master Course but, still may be purchased separately for a little while longer. You can read testimonials here.
The first half of the manual introduces a new paradigm and perspective for identifying what I call the ‘intentions’ or ‘objectives’ of the big market interests who clearly control the market trends. The Excalibur Method’s purpose is to allow one to place themselves in alignment with the plans of those who make the markets by using a mathematical tool to extract and interpret those plans. This information is a restricted release product. E-mail me HERE for price & availability
The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box above.
You’re welcome to read the many articles that are on this website.
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If you’re an active trader, you’ll probably be interested in also visiting my other website called www.money-tigers.com where you’ll find that I predicted these lower Gold prices some time ago using other techniques (like the Excalibur Method). Note that there are over 4-years of archived posts there with many, many spot-on predictions.
I’d like to point out that this is a tribute to technique rather than ego and that the techniques applied were developed from my many decades of research into Gann materials and personal research derived or inspired by Mr. Gann’s work. – George