It's easy to be lulled to sleep by the Stock Market during the Summer months as it's price action is historically lazy to match the seasonal heat. However, there is historical action to be found elsewhere during the Summer doldrums.
Observe, if you will, the EURO/USD forex trading environment. It turns out that just as the other markets go to sleep in July, the Euro picks up Volatility at just this time period and ramps it up going towards the Fall. The chart below illustrates the historical Volatility for the Euro over the last 30-Years:
Headlines aside, this is 'normal' behavior for the Euro and should be incorporated into one's trading strategy.
Now, what about the Seasonal Price Trend? This is a different measurement and, this one is based on Price action over many years. First, we have to identify what a 'normal' pattern for the Euro looks like. For that, we draw upon another Seasonal Chart that will show how prices tend to trend (up or down) during each month of the year.
On the chart above we see that it's normal for price to trend upwards from June-July to the end of the Year. If prices so far have matched up with the 'normal' price behavior, then, we can be fairly sure that the coming months in this year will tend to repeat their familiar yearly patterns again. Let's take a look & see.
The chart above tells us that the expected lows of June & July have taken place. This indicates a very high likelihood of a 'normally' upwards-moving Euro over the Summer Months ahead.
So, you see now that just because the Stock Market has lulled off to sleep, there's another market to pay close attention to during these Summer months ahead. Much Success. - George
