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FOREX: Strengths & Weaknesses

FOREX: FIRST DETERMINE THE BASICS OF WHAT’S STRONG & WHAT’S WEAK

Yes, there’s plenty of action in FOREX Markets trading intraday, but, to gain a solid feel about the major trend in the currencies, we really need to examine just two items.

As most of the popular currency pairs are defined in comparison to the US DOLLAR, the real test of strength or weakness comes down to just two questions:

  • How is the US DOLLAR doing?” and,
  • How are all the other currencies doing relative to the US DOLLAR?”

Answer just these two questions, and you’ll know which way the winds-of-change are blowing in the economic world. You don’t need to read essays, stockpile advanced degrees or have inside ‘hot’ tips to do this. In fact, we can use an entirely visual approach that will yield solid, profit-oriented information.

Let’s do it, starting with the two questions again, but, this time using visual only answers without emotionally-loaded words, symbols, descriptions or opinions:

  • How is the US DOLLAR doing?”
  • Answer: (See chart below).

usd

Now, for the second and last question:

  • “How are all the other currencies doing relative to the US DOLLAR?”
  • Answer:

weakcurrencies

There you have it. Your own eyes have provided enough proof to enable you to bypass all the ‘news’ that talks up the case for Europe or the state of the economies of any of the nations behind these currencies.

The US DOLLAR is STRONG. It’s the king-of-the-mountain for currencies at present. This isn’t a political statement, just a statement based on the truth of the chart. A Long position in the US DOLLAR is the winning trend at present. In like manner, the facts are (as you can plainly confirm from the above charts) that the EUR, JPY, CHF, AUS, CAD, GBP and NZD are WEAK Currencies.

All of them. Short positions in these are the winning side for profitability at present. As WD Gann used to write, ‘test all things’. I’d add, test them for yourself instead of trusting others opinions. – George

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  • October 3, 2014

Courage: The Gateway to Trading Profits

COURAGE LEADS TO MARKET PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES

In the midst of gloomy media scenarios, Courage is almost always overlooked as an essential ingredient to lasting success. Cyclical Human Psychology requires us to review what happens during sharply rising markets. Let’s see what we can learn by doing so.

Exponential markets leading, inevitably, to ‘blow-off tops’ are caused and accompanied by market euphoria (extreme optimism) NOT by gloom & doomers.

From personal experience, I can state that I was there at the dotcom peak in 1999-2000. Those were heady days and, I can assure you, no one rang the bell at the top to say it was over.

Nasdaqbubble2

No indeed, in fact, the news remained pretty positive well after the peak (as no one could believe what they were seeing and, instead confused hope for reality).

Today’s stock market is far from looking like this bubble from 1999-2000, and even back then opportunity was there to make huge profits.

OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND; ONLY AWAITING YOUR ABILITY TO RECOGNIZE THEM

First, let’s dispel the ‘good feeling’, ‘no-one’s-at-fault’, ‘life-should-be-fair’, ‘everyone-is-equal’ fairy tale that’s become the bedrock of today’s socialistic education and state what’s TRUE instead.

Here’s the TRUTH: Real opportunities are for the few, not the many.

This is not conspiratorial. It’s Nature’s Law.

Nature provides massive opportunities for the few by providing the greatest percentage of Humanity (and investors) with enough fear-based opinions (that run contrary to opportunity) to well provide for the wealth of the few with the courage to act against the crowd.

The Courageous Act upon opportunity. Yes, they analyze, then, they ACT.

The fearful Think About opportunity (in fact discuss it endlessly in forums, with their friends, etc.), then, Hesitate (calling it ‘prudence’) until it becomes clear that opportunity has passed the by (yet again-‘bad luck’).

COURAGE requires raising oneself above their Human Nature to a Higher Ideal and making this the new Standard.

Here, again is the reality which we must work with:Fear is the default program for Humanity.

It is firmly planted into our lower nature as a survival tool, but, the key to our success lies in rising above our lower nature and not in embracing it.

Fear of others successes also works against achieving our own success.

It’s become common in the press these days to criticize the top 20% income earners, but, in truth, upon closer examination, you’ll find that these are the people who had the Courage to become the top 20% of income earners.

You see Courage isn’t a fairy tale concept as so many of us have been taught.

Courage is a real-life Key to success in Life; in every aspect and, yes, an investing key to success as well.

Courage - CS Lewis

All of Man’s History shows that cultivating Courage in Life, will elevate oneself to a higher, nobler place and, with that accomplished, it must then reflect in greater Life success and, therefore, sounder financial decisions as well.

Food for thought. Good Trading. – George

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Australian/US Dollar: part 4

PRICE OBJECTIVE MET TO DOWNSIDE

The price objective was reached to the downside and prices have since staged an upwards swing.

aususd4

This chart is intended for educational purposes only, not an advisory or recommendation to buy or sell.

The chart above shows the current status of the AUSUSD as of this posting.

If you’d like to have access to this type of market analysis, e-mail me here for details. Thanks. – George

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  • September 24, 2014

Australian/US Dollar part 3

AUSTRALIAN/US DOLLAR HOURLY MOVES: PART 3

Observing the short-term hourly moves in the Australian/US Dollar proves out the principle of scale.We observe the same adherence to underlying fundamental laws at the short-term that we have observed at the daily, weekly, monthly and yearly time periods.

aususd3

All charts are shown for educational purposes only. This is not an advisory or promotion to buy or sell any trading instruments.

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  • September 24, 2014

Follow-up to Yesterday’s AUS/USD Comments

YESTERDAY’S AUSTRALIAN-US DOLLAR CALL

DISCLAIMER: All charts are for educational purposes only and not advisories or recommendations for trades.

This is a follow-up to yesterday’s hourly observations and expectations for a rise in the AUS/USD.

Happily, this is exactly what happened over the intervening hours with two tops put in that the Excalibur Method’s primary indicator (shown by the red dots on the chart below) pinpointed nicely yet again. Let’s look at the chart:

aususd2

DISCLAIMER: All charts are for educational purposes only and not advisories or recommendations for trades.

The green arrow shows yesterday’s expected price trend direction.

Prices did indeed go upwards, double-top and then take out the expected lows to continue down.

The present expected down trend is shown by the red arrow.

Momentum has slowed after reaching a solid support level and must drive below the 8830 level to proceed downwards further.

Until then, a repeat of yesterday’s action with the hourly trend trying to make a stab upwards out of it’s sideways trend is not out of the question. Should price fail to muster enough energy to do this, then, a slide down to the next level can be expected overnight as a continuation of the expected trend direction. – George

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  • September 23, 2014

Hourly Chart Watch: Australian/US Dollar

SHORT-TERM CHART WATCH FOR THE AUSSIE/US DOLLAR

Here’s a close-term look at the hourly trend in the Forex AUSUSD.

aususdMomentum is now building as accumulation is under way short-term. Watch for breakout from the green rectangle price area.

The price support is indicated by the red horizontal line. If price breaks below this level, the downward momentum will resume in earnest.– George

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  • September 22, 2014

The Invisible Shift in Gold & Silver’s Real Value

DISCLAIMER: All charts are for educational purposes only and not advisories or recommendations for trades.

OVERLOOKED BY ALMOST EVERYONE:
THE ‘TRUE’ SHIFT IN GOLD & SILVER’S VALUE

SILVER1There’s constant shock in the media and from the precious metals crowd whenever a new round of lows in price are reached.

This amazement on their part, unfortunately, reveals a real lack of historical price study and a missing contemplation about what is really happening in the World today relative to the ‘precious’ metals.

What is the “BIG” Picture relative to the precious metals anyways?

The standard theories have failed for decades yet, millions still cling to them for lack of a better model.

I’d like to humbly submit the following as a ‘missing’ perspective that should be given some thought relative to Gold and Silver.

This different approach stems from decades of following the serpentine trail of WD Gann which certainly taught me that the ‘obvious’ is often obscured by the popular mindset and ‘leaders’ of the industry they purport to be expert in.

gold1The truth is that ‘precious metals’, are fated to become a lot less precious in the near future.

What do I mean by that statement? Just this: while promoters were extolling the virtues of owning Gold and Silver for decades, it had gone (conveniently?) unnoticed that more and more individuals now held some Gold or Silver of their own.

All this while the Chinese and Indian populations were massively purchasing more and more every day.

In short, in the very process of so many people buying and holding Gold & Silver,  these metals have become more common and less ‘precious’ than ever before.

The gold promoters for years have pressed the scarcity of gold and silver as their main reason for expecting higher and higher prices.

Even as prices peaked in 2011 they refused to believe that Gold or Silver were still, in the end, just commodities and would decline just like the other commodities which also peaked around that same time period.

But, even beyond this fundamental, historical fact, the truth was that more gold & silver were produced and delivered to meet demands of the public even as prices fell.

The simple fact is that there’s now more gold and silver in the hands of the public than has been true since 1963 (when silver coinage was in circulation in silver’s case) or 1931 (when gold coins were in circulation in gold’s case)! Just on the basis of population growth since these past years, this would be true.

And, in those days Gold was far cheaper ($34 an ounce) and Silver was a dollar an ounce.

Yes, we have fiat inflation today and those prices don’t seem even possible, but, then, when Silver was around $50 an ounce just a few years ago, who’d expect the $17 an ounce range we’re in today? Or the $700 drop in Gold prices from their highs?

Even trillions of dollars of inflation with the QE programs failed to prevent Silver and Gold’s decline; such must be the increased quantities of both to account for this.

If one viewed gold and silver like a cell phone that didn’t add improvements every year, but, which stayed the same year after year while millions more were sold each year, you’d know instantly that the resultant retail price value trend of that cell phone would go down, down and down as more people owned one.

Gold and silver add no improvements to their value, ever and millions more units are brought into circulation every year and more and more people purchase those units.

Why should prices stay up?

As more come to possess it, logic dictates it would have to continue to lose it’s value until it reached a point of equilibrium with demand and supply.

Gold or Silver are not rare and are valued by the masses because they are obtainable (unlike rare earths, which truly ARE rare). So, don’t be hypnotized by the press and learn to think for yourselves.

That’s our main goal here; to remove myths and pick the trading trends for markets up or down.

One should have no fixed viewpoint about  gold or silver or their price direction or the belief systems around them.

It’s not necessary or helpful to hold too tight to an outlook for markets unless you can back up the opinions with sufficient historical precedent to solidify one’s outlook.

One can find profit opportunity in falling as well as rising markets. In fact, money accumulates faster in downward moving markets as they tend to move much faster.

My goal here is to teach those who would not be swayed by opinion in how to determine what the true market conditions are.

The purpose behind the Excalibur Method and the other modules within the Harrson-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course are to free one’s mind from unsupported opinions and to let the markets speak clearly in their own language.

The markets will reveal their intentions to those who are trained in how to listen.

The underlying Truth about markets is all that matters in the end as only that truth will guild one to success by following the market’s lead and not fighting it. – George

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Core Principles Work at Every Time Level

THE SAME PRINCIPLES APPLY NO MATTER WHAT THE CHART TIME FRAME

djia

Core Principles of the Markets work at every time period. – George
DISCLAIMER: The chart is for educational purposes only and is not an advisory or recommendation.

The techniques that give the result seen on these charts did not just come from conventional theories or tools, but from decades long research, high costs and testing. If you wish to save yourself both time and money, consider becoming one of the few students left this year who will have access to the Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course or the Excalibur Method (which may be purchased separately).George

  • September 10, 2014