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Reality, the Road to Better Market Timing

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Reality: The Road to Better Timing

Besides the great importance of being aligned with the dominant trend when trading or investing, WD Gann proved that there’s also the necessity of discerning a change in those trends (using market timing techniques) as early as possible.

Now, while the absolute top and bottom of a price move is what most newcomers to the markets think is what should be aimed for, a step back and analysis of the statistics will correct the notion that tops and bottoms are what should be the main focus of market timing.

In any time period, there will be an absolute high and low which will occur within that time frame. That is the Top and the Bottom of that market for that time period.

For a Year, which constitutes about 220 trading days, that means if we are trying to target those two single points of the High and the Low randomly, we’d have only 2 chances out of 220 of being correct in our assessments.

The percentage odds of that approach being ‘right-on-the-money’ correct are only .9 %!

Put another way, we have 99.1% odds of missing the High and the Low for the Year!

And, in the investing field, that means, at least half the time, selling too early to find the top (creating losses) and buying too early looking for the lowest low (also creating losses). That translates into loss for the trader and investor who tries to top and bottom pick at least 50% of the time!

WD Gann and Crude Oil Timing

Price charts courtesy of Finviz.com. Indicators by WDGann-Lost-Secrets.com
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE FOR VIEWING

‘Hope’ is fictional, Reality is self-defined

Tops and Bottoms to markets ARE Reality and, therefore, define themselves.

READ MORE . . .

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The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box below.

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December 22nd:

There will be only be only a few allocated student openings for the Master Course for the coming year (2014). Those interested in getting on this very short list should click here to contact me by e-mail.

The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course can be purchased in it’s entirety or taken over a one year period in modular form. Contact me by email for details and availability.

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  • July 26, 2020

GOLD’S NEXT MOVE

 GOLD’S NEXT MOVE:

When it comes to anticipating Gold’s next move, we need to acknowledge one of the fundamentals of trading:  An answer to the question: “Just where are GOLD prices most likely to go next?” is valuable information.

This is especially so, when the techniques used have been proven over and over again over the last 4+ years to be highly accurate as to timing and price targets (as it has with this website and our sister site www.money-tigers.com).

What everyone wants to know is just to the right of where the chart below stops.

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Now, nothing is really free in this Life and neither is this membership.

After all, it’s my hope that several of you will catch sight of the vision behind the techniques displayed in the Members Only area of this website and will want to learn those skills for yourselves.

Others may choose more in-depth analysis of the markets but, whatever it is that interests you or that you desire for your own trading goals, you will only get access to it as a private Member. So, you owe it to yourself to become a Member  by joining today.

This information is intended for those mature and/or aspiring traders and investors that are willing to pay (in both expense & personal effort) to save decades of time, energy and expense in order to learn the fundamental, unchanging aspects of the markets and price movement.

Members will have access to gain that knowledge (or the results of applying that knowledge) NOW and not after 10, 20, or, yes, even 40 years of searching. And, that’s only if they’re ever found at all!

Many have spent years of their investment lives and most spent all of it searching without finding the hidden secrets of the markets. WD Gann left the vaguest of clues which could only be tied together with a ‘thread’ that lay outside his materials and, therefore,  beyond the sight of virtually all seekers.

With your Free membership, you get just a ‘taste’ of what can be known in advance and all member information is presented purely as educational.

To plumb even greater depths of understanding and results, or, to have more timely studies and insights, you, as a member, will be presented with several additional options.

Yes, Membership is free, but, I do ask for something from you however. You must prove your sincerity of interest by putting forth the minimal effort of registering for membership. That simple action may lead to a life-changing course of action in your investment destiny.

The latest charts and calls are reserved for viewing by MEMBERS ONLY

You can still join the WD Gann Trading Group for FREE by clicking HERE or clicking on the chart above and registering.

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GOLD PRICES SIGNAL NEW DROP AHEAD

The GOLD market has signaled new price weakness that should manifest within the next few days at most.

goldThe chart above shows with the orange circle where Time & Price have met and balanced out.

The next move should be strongly downward with some support at around $1205 and stronger support at around $1183.

If prices take out the lows, then $1140 should become the next target low to watch.

However, should strength come back into the Gold market prices would first have to penetrate and close above $1240 on the daily in order for Time & Price to re-establish themselves as a continuing uptrend. – George   [/private_WD Gann Trading Secrets Group]

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Stocks Approach Trend Shift Point

WATCHING STOCKS APPROACH TREND SHIFT POINT

Continued declines have pushed stocks close to a trend shift point as shown on the chart below:

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Chart courtesy of Finviz.com. This chart is for educational purposes only and is not an advisory to buy or sell anything.

As October is historically a month of both declines and beginnings of bull markets I’d expect one of these two price lines to be a bottom.

The bull market that has been the stock market for the last year makes me choose the lowest price line (1640)as the one most likely to hold the bull market trend intact. If prices break below 1800 in the S&P 500,  prices will have little to hold them back from 1640. – George

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  • October 16, 2014

Predicted S&P 500 Support Price Reached

THE PREDICTED S&P 500 SUPPORT PRICE REACHED

The predicted S&P 500 support price was reached today.

Our initial support price was reached this morning and prices bounced upwards from there. This may not be the bottom yet, but, gives confidence that the market is following a predictable pattern. – George

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  • October 15, 2014

October Market Slide

THE PRESENT OCTOBER MARKET SLIDE IS EXPECTED

By George R. Harrison

There is an expected S&P 500 October market slide bottom that is acting out on cue at present. If you look at the S&P 500 chart below you’ll see a green horizontal line on the chart. This represents where we can expect to find some price support or slowing of the decline should it continue downwards.

You’ll note that this green price area is above a previous breakdown low which would mean that the public wouldn’t expect prices to stop there, making 1830 an ideal potential pivot point for price.

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Click on chart for greater clarity ALL CHARTS ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

This doesn’t mean that prices can’t go lower than this, but, time is running out for the expected bottom to occur. Should 1830 be broken through with downtrending prices, we’ll begin to accumulate the first of the confirming signs of slowing down of the bull market uptrend.

Taking out the 6-month lows would be an occasion for pause in our bullish outlook and warrant extra caution in expectations. This will happen someday, but, it hasn’t happened yet. Stay alert though. George

  • October 12, 2014

Stock Market Lower Lows: An Emotional ‘Button Pusher’

STOCK MARKET LOWER LOWS. IS IT TIME TO PANIC?

By George R. Harrison

It’s been another interesting week full of panic headlines. Stock market prices took up the panic cry and made lower lows on several indexes.

Both you and I know that, eventually, this soaring market will end it’s up-cycle and decline. When it does it will be indicated by lower prices; lower lows and lower highs. Here’s the question though: ‘Are the first lower lows enough of an indicator for us to take action?’

The definitive answer is ‘No’ and this answer is based on empirical facts which the historical S&P 500 chart below will show.

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CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

The red horizontal lines on the chart show all the times when lower lows were made over the last 12-months. On 5 (out of 5) occasions lower lows were made which led to, not a collapse, but, HIGHER HIGHS.

We’re now in the 6th occasion of lower lows, and, while any collapse in prices would have to make lower lows, I submit that we don’t have enough other confirmations to change from a super-bull uptrend to a down trend.

There’s a natural ‘respiration’ to markets just as in Human Beings taking a run. Sometimes, one has to ‘catch one’s breath’, recover a little and then press on with the run. It’s the same with the market. As we’ve seen previously 5 times now in the last year, there’s been a pause in the upwards ‘run’ followed by renewed strength and a new surge forward. A pause only rarely signifies quitting the ‘race’, and, there, would be other symptoms that would accompany such as dramatic shift.

We haven’t seen those other symptoms as yet and one is we haven’t taken out the last lower low point or taken out an Excalibur Method Trinary point. George

  • October 11, 2014

WD Gann Secrets

MORE ARTICLES ABOUT WD GANN:

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The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box below.

Email-Click

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Financial Headlines Lead Traders Astray

FINANCIAL HEADLINES EMBELLISH FACTS AND MISLEAD TRADERS

Today’s financial reading was much of the same foggy speculation, but, even so, I found it irresistible to point out one particular article’s lead headline (source mentioned on the chart) which went: “

“Silver Soars As The Dollar Dumps Most In A Year . . .”

This headline’s effect (on those less mindful than those of you who frequent this website) was to stampede traders to buy and sell the markets mentioned.

The operative emotional trigger keywords were ‘Silver Soars’ and ‘Dumps Most in a Year. Our approach on this website is to dispel BS using the pure reality of the price chart as our ‘magic glasses’ to see what’s really going on.

Let’s look at the Daily chart for Silver to crosscheck the ‘Silver Soars’ statement:

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All charts are for educational use only. This is not an advisory to buy or sell.

As the chart above shows, this ‘Silver Soars’ headline is a NON-EVENT on a daily chart of silver prices. That lonely green bar is supposed to change our minds about the solid, months-long DOWNTREND?

I think not.

How about the US DOLLAR then?

So sad to hear that it “crashed by the most in over a year today.”

That sure sounds like a heck of a slide. It must be a massive red line on the chart then, yes?

NO!

Instead we look at a US DOLLAR chart and see this . . .

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All charts are for educational use only. This is not an advisory to buy or sell.

 Take a few moments to look at the dollar chart above, because, if you don’t take your time, you’ll probably miss the great ‘dollar crash’ they’re writing about!

Now, I know that the writer is referring to the percentage move, but, that’s not the implication of the headline as written. What was written ended up being extremely misleading and alarmist.

Obviously, when one goes and investigates for themselves just what the markets referred to are doing, the exaggeration of events in these headlines stands out and begs the question of ‘how can events be so mis-written?’

We can just call it poor writing due to inexperience. That’s the kindest assessment we can make. The other alternative is more likely but will go unwritten at this time.

Does someone want traders to Buy Silver and Sell the Dollar?

Those that followed such headline suggestions would find themselves on the opposite side of two very strong price trends leading to likely losses and profiting those trading with the stronger trends and taking the very opposite positions suggested for others.

The bottom-line for us as traders and investors is familiar; we must check all opinions heard or read against the reality of the price chart. In this case the ‘greater fool’ would be someone who jumped and reacted to these headlines.

Examine the charts and provide yourself with tools to better ‘foolproof’ oneself from speculative opinions. George

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coverthumbTake some time to examine some of the testimonials from purchasers of the Excalibur Method analysis technique.

This method and the advanced techniques included within the proprietary Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course are needed more than ever to locate and  harvest the many opportunities that come with ‘interesting times’ of financial volatility.

I’m selling only a few more copies of the Excalibur Method before the end of this year and am accepting a few new students for the Master Course. E-mail me for details and availability if you wish to avail yourself of this hard-won market information. Thanks. George

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