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The Excalibur Method vs. the ‘News’

Crude Oil: Strategy vs. Panic

CRUDE OIL PRICE DROP: STRATEGY VS. PANIC

Once again the headlines trumpet panic and confusion globally.

Those headlines, as I’ve stated often here, are designed to keep one OUT of the markets by creating confusion and delay (using ‘logical’ arguments as the anti-investor ‘tool’ of choice).

Moments like those that occurred on Friday, (when approached strategically) offer early warning of what’s-to-come when it comes to price movements.

Crude Oil is a 24-hour global market of significance. KNOWING what’s happening internally with it’s price structure is a critical factor in seizing profit opportunities.

Let’s apply one of our trading analysis tools (The Excalibur Method) to Friday’s price action to show the hypothetical results one might have realized using this approach as our intra-day strategy.

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Today’s and yesterday’s examples of Friday’s price moves are the type of moves that can go a long way towards recovering funds lost while trading without such an effective methodology as The Excalibur Method.

‘Tis the Season” to take a real holiday from market confusion and start taking control or your own trading destiny?

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CLICK HERE and drop me a line for your special offer for the Excalibur Method or to acquire the Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course (available module by module or all-at-once.

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Back to Nature: The Seasonal Waves of Opportunity

THE SEASONAL OPPORTUNITIES IN GRAINS

NOTE: All the chart positions shown are hypothetical and for educational purposes only.

Let Your Price Charts Pick the Opportunities – Not the ‘News’!

THE MEDIA: EVERYTHING OLD IS ‘NEWS’ AGAIN

CLICK ON THE CHART TO READ THE ARTICLE

To read the article and view the charts, click on the chart above.

Now would be an excellent time to join our subscriber group.

Thanks. – George

Excalibur Analysis Examples

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WD Gann’s Greatest Trade

Russian Ruble & Economic Trends

THE RUBLE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTH

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

Charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Click on charts to enlarge for clarity

As the chart to the left shows, the Ruble has been declining since 2011 and hit 5-year lows in March of this year.

Now, 5-years is a long period of time and it essentially rolls us back to 2009 levels of valuation for the Ruble.

Low valuation levels like these are good places for a market to recover strength and the Ruble is doing that right now.

Don’t misunderstand me though, there’s still solid momentum in the downward direction for the Ruble.

It takes time and lots of buying to compensate for all the selling pressure that’s been at play over these last 3-years.

The second chart shows that there’s been significant BUYING taking place which has moved the Ruble now in the upwards direction since March 2014.

It’s interesting to note that this new rising trend started in the middle of the Crimean Crisis.

Obviously, there are some who are investing heavily by buying Russian products. If the media hype during the crisis were correct (it wasn’t), then, you’d think people would be selling their rubles and buying US Dollars. The opposite is shown on the chart.

It’s the US DOLLAR that has declined as a result of it’s admitted involvement in both the Ukraine and Crimea politically.

*Note that all charts indicate hypothetical positions using The Excalibur Method.

Currencies can reflect on immediate events temporarily as in this case, but, as I’ve advocated on this website and WD Gann did as well, it’s very, very important to know the long-term trends of the markets we’re examining.

The chart on the left shows us the shorter-term turns.

The red circles are the Excalibur Method trigger points within the downtrend of the Ruble where additional or initial positions could be placed with lower-than-normal risks of reversal.

The green circle at the bottom is where a short-term Buy trigger was indicated where a similar lower-than-normal risk could be applied.

My summary is that, despite the negative news, the smart money immediately took advantage of the political crisis to go against US proposed sanctions and started to heavily BUY the Ruble and go long the Russian Economy.

Need more proof?

Check out the behavior of the Russian Stock Market during this same crisis period.

The chart to the left shows that both the Ruble and the Russian Stock Market bottomed at the same time, but, have since also both risen in the aftermath. Obviously big money moved into this market and has bought when things looked bleakest.

Recent European headlines show that Germany has opted out of the ‘sanctions’ approach as well as other European countries as well as Canada.

All this political posturing seems to have boosted the Russian Economy, not hurt it. Or, at least it provided opportunities to BUY at extreme discounts for those in the know.

So much for politics as an economic indicator. – George

Chinese Yuan: Declining Trend

THE CHINESE YUAN CONTINUES IT’S DECLINE

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

Charts courtesy of Yahoo Finance
Click on chart to enlarge for clarity

Continuing in our ‘Appraisal Reports’ for major Currencies of late, we come next to the Chinese Yuan.

The current price chart of the CNY/USD for a multi-year period is shown to the left. This particular chart was prepared some days ago.

Although most media have been reporting the recent upswing in the Yuan, the underlying momentum for this market is still downwards in direction.

We’ll take a more recent snapshot of this market with the next chart down.

This second chart shows that the downward drift of prices has continued even further.

To further confirm the down trend of the Chinese Yuan as indicated by the CNY/USD chart, we should expect prices to decline over time. Let’s see if this is so . . .

This is the current trend for this currency which, in turn, strengthens the Chinese economic position by decreasing the costs of their exports.

As the Economy of a nation is reflected in it’s currency, we can draw some conclusion from the emphasis that nation places on it’s money.

As the US DOLLAR is rising, causing exports to be more expensive from the USA, China is purposefully decreasing the value of it’s controlled currency in order to maintain it’s World exporting edge and to support it’s own industries.

This places China in the stronger position of the two economically relative to supporting it’s own industrial base. – George

THE EXCALIBUR TRADING METHOD

Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Course image

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This is the method that I developed in order to find the true ‘intentions’ of the institutional traders in every market.

This approach is unique and, is not a conventional trend tool. The theory behind this exceptional analytical tool was derived from my many decades of research into W.D. Gann’s methods and writings as well as those of the ‘mercantile principles’ from the business side of the markets.

As the years rolled by, rediscoveries of lost principles of the markets were accumulated into what is now called the ‘Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course’.

‘The Excalibur Method’ is now part of the Master Course but, still may be purchased separately for a little while longer. You can read testimonials here.

The first half of the manual introduces a new paradigm and perspective for identifying what I call the ‘intentions’ or ‘objectives’ of the big market interests who clearly control the market trends. The Excalibur Method’s purpose is to allow one to place themselves in alignment with the plans of those who make the markets by using a mathematical tool to extract and interpret those plans. This information is a restricted release product. E-mail me HERE for price & availability

The rediscovery of these WD Gann lost secrets (and many more) as well as other completely original discoveries are available to a limited number of students each year through The Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course. Contact me by e-mail for price and availability by clicking the box above.

Australian Dollar Appraisal

THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR APPRAISAL & THE WISDOM OF THE CHARTS

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE FOR CLARITY

Continuing in our ‘Appraisal Reports’ for major Currencies of late, we come next to the Australian Dollar.

The current price chart of the AUS/USD for a one-year period is shown to the left with our present price level indicated by the red circle on the right side of the chart.

As mentioned before in previous articles, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to determine much with a chart of this time-frame.

We may infer an up-trending pattern, but, is the Australian Dollar (and, therefore the economy of Australia) in any danger at present?

A nation’s currency is an excellent indicator of it’s underlying condition, but, short-term daily charts will seldom provide the important context we’ll need to make an accurate evaluation.

To discover the true status of the AUD/USD, we need to dig deeper to find the ‘mercantile perspective‘ of the banks and financial institutions that control the prices.

What we’ll observe with the Australian Dollar is that it has a bit more volatility than the Euro we examined yesterday. What this means for the institutional traders is greater profitability potential during the same time period that other currencies like the Euro offer less. To take advantage of this volatility, they target specific price areas for the Australian Dollar.

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[private_WD GANN TRADING SECRETS GROUP]

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One needs to remember that this currency market is, in the end, still just a ‘market’ and the ‘mercantile’ principles of BUYING
at greatly Discounted prices and Selling at highly Marked-up prices can be found at work in the Australian Dollar (if one takes the time to look).

If we examine the activity of the last 5-Years, we find that the Australian Dollar market provided +20% and +30% Mark-ups from the Lows and provided additional -10% and -20% downside profit potentials on the Discounts from the tops.

Lest, one forgets, these are multiple 10, 20 and 30% profits from a currency during a time when the Banks were only offering low percentage interest payments to depositors of this very same currency into their vaults!

The chart above shows a pattern of buying and selling on an institutional level that has maintained it’s integrity for the last 5-years.

This is the basis for an excellent investment when using the correct tools to interpret the ongoing price movements into the future (see ‘The Excalibur Method‘ for one of the easiest and most accurate tools to use – George)

The profit potentials on the upswing are plainly indicated on the chart.

Now, let’s look at the present environment by viewing the realities of the ‘Discount’ side of the AUS/USD.

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The bottom of the red area on the price chart to the left shows the first -10% ‘Discount’ purchase area for institutions.

You’ll note upon closer examination that prices did, indeed, reverse upwards again after visiting the 10-12% discounted area for the Australian Dollar.

Eventually, an even greater Discount of 20% was reached (shown by the red horizontal line) where more ‘inventory’ of Aussie Dollars could be accumulated.

You’ll note again, that prices found magical support at this -20% price point.

Present prices can be seen within the red circle.

Now, here’s how to use a chart like this to remove news-generated fear from your investment decisions . . .

First note the extreme mark-ups (the Highs) and extreme discounts (the Lows). These are the points of maximum danger to a currency and the government that controls it.

These points contain either the threat of Inflation at the one extreme or Deflation at the other.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE FOR CLARITY

However, most of the time, these become only BUY and SELL opportunities for institutions (like banks) as discussed above.

Note the red circle on the last chart. This is where price action is now. You’ll need to note that this price level is NOT near the extremes mentioned above.

Therefore, it’s extremely unlikely that there’s any financial crisis at hand that will affect the Australian Dollar.

Until prices revisit either the .8900 or 1.1oo level again, there’s no reason to be fearful about the Australian Economy.

And, when prices draw close to the extremes again, they can be monitored for their true intentions using a tool like the Excalibur Method so that there will be no surprises and, instead an early warning should basic conditions shift for the worst.

By determining and knowing the real condition of a currency, we weaken the influence of the media on our trading and investing decisions.

Charts like these therefore, can provide provide you with the Knowledge that conquers fear, removes panic, prevents emotional decisions and so, increase one’s likelihood of Investment Success.- GR HARRISON

[/private_WD GANN TRADING SECRETS GROUP]

THE EXCALIBUR TRADING METHOD

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE

This is the method that I developed in order to find the true ‘intentions’ of the institutional traders in every market.

As the years rolled by, rediscoveries of lost principles of the markets were accumulated into what is now called the ‘Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course’.

‘The Excalibur Method’ is now part of the Master Course but, still may be purchased separately for a little while longer. You can read testimonials here.

You’re welcome to read the many articles that are on this website.

You can gain access by going to the top part of this page and clicking on the menu and sub-menu links there.

If you’re an active trader, you’ll probably be interested in also visiting my other website called www.money-tigers.com where you’ll find that I predicted these lower Gold prices some time ago using other techniques (like the Excalibur Method). Note that there are over 4-years of archived posts there with many, many spot-on predictions.

I’d like to point out that this is a tribute to technique rather than ego and that the techniques applied were developed from my many decades of research into Gann materials and personal research derived or inspired by Mr. Gann’s work. – George

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Using Price Charts to Remove the Fear of Trading

HOW TO REMOVE FEAR BY USING CHARTS

By G. R. Harrison (2014)

CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, most of the public has been conditioned by the media to expect traumatic upheavals in government and the economy at any moment.

This is either a gross mis-interpretation of economic conditions or an outright lie broadcast to further one’s opposite investment commitments.

It’s the old sleight-of-hand maneuver using the media instead of a pea under a walnut shell .

Let’s see how we can use charts to remove some of this unnecessary fear from our trading and investment decisions.

A nation’s currency is an excellent indicator of it’s underlying condition, but, short-term daily charts will seldom provide the important context we’ll need to make an accurate evaluation.

We’ll start with a major Forex currency pair; the Euro-US Dollar.

The top chart shows the Eur/Usd over the last year. Outside of perceiving the upwards nature of the trend, what do we really know? Not much really at all.

CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

The fundamental core of a successful enterprise is to BUY at a discount or wholesale and SELL at premiums or mark-ups.

One needs to remember that the currency market is, in the end, still just a ‘market’ and the same principle can be found at work in it if one takes the time to look.

If we examine the activity of the last 5-Years, we find a market that has provided 10% and 20% discounts from the Highs and provided even more upside profit potential on the mark-ups from bottoms.

Lest, one forgets, these are multiple 20% profits from a currency during a time when the Banks are only paying out 1% to depositors of this very same currency into their vaults!

The chart above shows a pattern of buying and selling on an institutional level that has maintained it’s integrity for the last 5-years.

CLICK ON CHART FOR GREATER CLARITY

Now, here’s how to use a chart like this to remove news-generated fear from your investment decisions . . .

First note the extreme mark-ups (the Highs) and extreme discounts (the Lows). These are the points of maximum danger to a currency and the government that controls it. The threat of Inflation at the one extreme and Deflation at the other.

Markets at these extreme points need to be monitored closely to determine if there will be an important shift in the economy.

However, most of the time, these become only BUY and SELL opportunities for institutions (like banks) as discussed above.

Note the red circle on the third chart. This is where price action is now. You’ll need to note that this price level is NOT near the extremes mentioned above.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that there’s any financial crisis at hand that will affect the base currency.

In fact, at the momentum rate we’re presently in for this market, it’s unlikely that we’ll reach the upper mark-up limits before 2015.

Determining and knowing that fact, the influence of current news becomes diminished and unimportant to the larger picture of events under way.

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Newcomers are always welcome to read the many articles that are on this website.

You can gain access by going to the lower part of this page and clicking on the many links there.

What’s Your Trend?

WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU HAVE A SERIES OF LOSSES

By W. D. Gann (1942)

“When you make one to three trades that show losses, whether they be large or small, something is wrong with you and not with the market.

Your trend may have changed.

My rule is to get out and wait.

Study the reason for your losses.

Remember, you will never lose any money being out of the market.

Holding on to a losing trade is the worst thing you can do, and as a rule it continues to go against you, and the quicker you take a loss, the better.

Trade with the main trend.

It never pays to sell short in a Bull market because you are bucking the trend and may miss the top.

It never pays to buy in a Bear market, becuase you are bucking the trend and may miss the bottom and have losses. – WD GANN (1942)

George’s Commentary . . .

Here is another topic as current today as when it was first written by W.D. Gann back in 1942.

This rule will never change and is based on a mathematical principle.

In these writings of W.D. Gann, we can detect Gann’s keen powers of observation as applied to markets and traders.

Most become so emotionally attached to their trades that the concept of a change of trend in themselves and their equity accounts never occurs to them. I can assure you from my observations over the decades that Gann’s comments ring true and should be applied.

This process becomes a new type of STOP (for ALL further trading) that can keep one from hammering away at a market that’s gone sideways and trendless.

These are the very conditions where it’s best to . . .

Step away from the markets,
Apprise ourselves of our previous actions and their results
Re-assess present market conditions
And, reset our profit Objectives in accordance with those present conditions.

Any tool that can help us to restrain our Human Nature to over-do an action without critically examining that action should be welcomed and used consistently. – GR HARRISON

Market Risk Analysis

Track which markets are STRONG (Bullish) and which are much WEAKER (Bearish). More information is available once you click the buttons.

MARKET RISK ANALYSIS

Report As Of March 21st, 2014

Which Markets Are Stronger?

For the Strongest markets click here

Asset Protection: The Flight Towards Safety.

Proper market analysis can soothe the nerves and dial down the anxiety of today’s tense headlines. When there’s war jitters, safety is a fundamental Key for the greater portion of one’s portfolio. Strong Markets are those that are positively gaining in value and running true to their inherent momentum ROI angles as depicted by WD GANN & GR HARRISON in their writings.

Which Markets Are Weaker?

For the weakest markets click here

Speculation: How To Take Advantage Of Weaker Markets.

Once the safety requirements of the stronger markets are met, then, one can speculate and seek profitability by SELLING the weaker markets. Those with the greatest potential for downwards price movements. Weak markets are those that are declining in value according to their own negative momentum. These offer spectacular profit opportunities within short time periods and lie where average traders fear to tread: Where the Market is actually going!

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Practical Knowledge

**PRACTICAL MARKET KNOWLEDGE IS NOT WIDELY KNOWN**

TRUTH IS OBSCURED TO THE NATURAL EYE

Skill requires a thorough knowledge of our area of work.

Whether for markets or medicine, one needs to build a skill set that’s founded upon fundamental truths that can be depended on, in turn, to support our successful application of those skills over and over again.

But, Truth is obscured to the natural eye and, when it comes to discovering truth about a subject, it seems like this is a pretty dark world indeed.

If ignorance were darkness, then, to find our way towards answers, we’d need to grab a lantern, and, like Diogenes, start our search for Honesty and Truth. Indeed, Diogenes said that there was only one good, namely, knowledge; and only one evil, namely, ignorance.

Knowledge is one of those 80-20 things.

80% of what professes to be knowledge is relatively time-dependent and useless for the long-term. In truth, this number is probably closer to 95%. But only 20% of what’s ‘out there’ and known as knowledge has any value in Life at all.

In point of fact, it’s more likely to be only about 5% of available knowledge that has lasting, timeless value. And, I’m speaking of only that which has been discovered and not lost. If we seek previously discovered and lost-again knowledge, as with W.D. Gann’s work, then the search is much harder as the information is more valuable and useful in day-to-day trading.

The only really useful knowledge is practical knowledge. Knowledge that can be applied consistently and accurately over any period of history, under any market conditions.

Trading the markets is, in no way, an academic exercise and the markets don’t respect educational credentials.

What works in the markets must be learned from the markets themselves and that knowledge must also be tested by fire. This is the core information offered through this website to those who seek to shorten the ‘search’ for themselves and spend their time applying practical knowledge to trading the markets and increasing their success.

You’ll find this type of foundational knowledge in the Excalibur Method and in the Harrison-Gann Trade Secrets Master Course which you can learn more about on this website. If this is the level of expertise you desire, contact me for availability and price through e-mail by clicking HERE.